Crypto Fear & Greed Index Sinks to 6-Month Low After Trump Threatens 100% China Tariffs

The crypto market’s mood flipped sharply to “Fear,” with the widely watched Fear & Greed Index dropping to its lowest reading in six months after former U.S. President Donald Trump warned of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. The tariff threat jolted risk assets across the board, and crypto—still tightly correlated with macro headlines—felt the brunt as traders de-risked and cut leverage.

Bitcoin slid as volatility spiked, dragging majors and high-beta altcoins lower. Funding rates softened and basis compressed, signaling a retreat from aggressive long positioning. Order books thinned on the way down, amplifying intraday whipsaws, while stablecoin dominance ticked up as capital moved to the sidelines. On-chain flows showed heightened exchange deposits, consistent with short-term sell pressure and hedging activity.

Despite the shock, market structure is not uniformly bearish. Spot demand from larger buyers remains intermittent, ETF inflows have slowed but not reversed, and realized volatility—though elevated—still sits below prior capitulation regimes. For directional traders, the playbook is to respect downside momentum while watching for signs of seller exhaustion: declining liquidations, narrowing spreads, and a turn in funding back toward neutral. For longer-term allocators, staggered bids near higher-timeframe supports and a focus on quality, liquid names can reduce timing risk.

What to monitor next: (1) the policy timeline—any escalation or de-escalation around tariffs will likely reset risk appetite; (2) liquidity conditions across U.S. hours versus Asia opens; (3) ETF net flows and stablecoin supply growth as proxies for fresh spot demand; and (4) miner and long-term holder behavior, which tend to anchor medium-term trends.

Bottom line: macro headlines have reintroduced fear, but the broader cycle drivers—adoption, on-chain activity, and institutional participation—will determine whether this shock becomes a deeper trend or a sharp sentiment reset.

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