Raoul Pal, the influential macro investor and co-founder of Real Vision, has once again made waves in the crypto community. In his most recent analysis, Pal draws striking parallels between the current crypto market cycle and the historic 2017 bull run — but with a key difference: he believes this time the rally could last until the second quarter of 2026. Let’s break down his insights and what they could mean for investors.
The 2017 Playbook Revisited
According to Pal, the price action and market behavior we’ve seen in 2024 so far are eerily similar to those from 2017. That year saw a massive surge in crypto valuations driven by retail enthusiasm, technological narratives (such as ICOs), and accelerating network adoption.
Pal highlights that Bitcoin and Ethereum are exhibiting price structures that almost mirror their 2017 patterns — with steady accumulation, followed by breakout rallies and short-term corrections.
What’s Different This Time?
Unlike 2017, Pal points out several factors that could extend this bull cycle:
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Institutional Adoption: Major asset managers, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds are now entering the space, following the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in multiple countries.
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Global Liquidity Trends: Pal argues that ongoing global monetary easing and rising liquidity, particularly from the U.S., Europe, and Asia, will continue to fuel risk assets, including crypto.
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Technological Maturity: The rise of Layer 2 solutions, real-world asset tokenization, and more robust DeFi ecosystems provide stronger fundamentals than the speculative mania of 2017.
A Bull Market Until Q2 2026?
Pal’s model suggests that, due to these supportive factors, the current crypto bull cycle could have greater longevity. Rather than peaking abruptly as in 2017-2018, he envisions a longer, more sustained rally.
In particular, Pal anticipates the following timeline:
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Late 2024 to 2025: Acceleration phase where Bitcoin could challenge $150,000–$250,000, and Ethereum potentially surpasses $10,000, driven by institutional flows and retail FOMO.
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Early to Mid-2026: The euphoric top as liquidity peaks and macro conditions tighten again.
What Could Derail the Cycle?
Pal cautions that despite the bullish outlook, certain risks could shorten or derail the rally:
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A sharp tightening of global liquidity.
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Regulatory crackdowns in key jurisdictions.
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Geopolitical shocks that disrupt markets.
Key Takeaways for Investors
✅ Stay informed: Understanding macro liquidity cycles and adoption trends is essential.
✅ Diversify exposure: Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, consider promising altcoins, but manage risk carefully.
✅ Have an exit strategy: Even if the cycle lasts until 2026, it will not be a straight line up.
Final Thoughts
Raoul Pal’s thesis offers both excitement and a reminder of caution. If his predictions hold true, crypto investors could be looking at an extended period of opportunity — but one that requires discipline, research, and agility. The echoes of 2017 are loud, but this time the market is older, wiser, and more intertwined with the broader financial system.