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The price is hovering around US$ 103,8xx, still holding above the US$ 100 k mark after breaking six digits last week.
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Net inflows/outflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain the primary short-term driver—since early April, more than US$ 5.6 billion has flowed in, though some institutional funds have started trimming positions.
Key Drivers for the Week 19 – 25 May 2025
| Factor | View | Probability (“weight”) |
|---|---|---|
| ETF Flows | Net flows remain positive but volatility is rising—if daily inflows stay above US$ 400 million, the market is likely to test US$ 110 k | High |
| Fed & Financial Conditions | No major inflation data until the May CPI release on 11 Jun. Price action will hinge on Fed speeches (20, 23, 25 May). A “hold-rates” stance keeps the dollar steady—neutral for BTC. | Medium |
| On-chain & Whale Activity | Whales continue to accumulate even as ETF inflows slow—suggesting strong buying around US$ 100 k. | Medium-High |
| Technical Signals | 7-day EMA ≈ US$ 101 k / 20-day SMA ≈ US$ 98 k (calculated from YCharts closes). First resistance: US$ 107 k – 110 k; key support: US$ 100 k – 98 k | — |
Note – EMA/SMA figures are rough estimates using closing prices up to 17 May; refresh them before publishing.
Price-Range Scenarios (for BestBrokerConnect.com)
| Scenario | Assumptions | Target Range 19 – 25 May |
|---|---|---|
| Base | ETF inflows steady at ≈ US$ 150 – 300 m/day, no negative regulatory news | US$ 100 k – 110 k |
| Bullish | Inflows accelerate > US$ 400 m/day & Fed speeches remain dovish | US$ 110 k – 120 k |
| Bearish | Net outflows for 2–3 straight days, price breaks below US$ 98 k | US$ 92 k – 98 k |