FTX “143% Payout” vs. Reality: Why Many Creditors May See Only 9–46% Back

The headline number sounds dazzling: a 143% cash payout for FTX creditors. Yet for many victims, the effective recovery—the share of what their assets are truly worth to them today—could be far lower, plausibly in the 9–46% range. The gap isn’t a contradiction; it’s the product of how bankruptcy math, timing, and asset pricing work. Here’s the concise breakdown.

1) Claims are valued at the petition date, not today.
In crypto bankruptcies, customer claims are typically locked to the dollar value at the moment the company filed for bankruptcy. Many FTX customers held crypto, not cash. When the case began, crypto prices were depressed. A claim for “1 BTC,” for instance, is converted into its petition-date dollar value, not the current price of BTC. So even if creditors receive “143% of their allowed claim,” that 143% is applied to a low base set when markets were much weaker. Relative to the current market value of the same coins, the effective recovery can look small.

2) Cash, not coins—so you miss the rebound.
Because distributions are in cash, creditors do not participate in any post-petition rally of their original tokens. If those coins rebounded dramatically after the petition date, the cash payout—even at more than 100% of the allowed claim—may represent a fraction of what the crypto would be worth today. This is the single largest source of the seemingly paradoxical “low real recovery vs high payout” headline.

3) Priority, fees, and the capital stack.
Bankruptcy estates pay in order of priority: secured creditors, administrative expenses, and professional fees come before general unsecured claims. Even when an estate realizes strong recoveries from asset sales, litigation wins, or stake liquidations, the net distributable pool is reduced by costs. While these do not negate the payout, they help explain why the “headline percentage” doesn’t map to a dollar-for-dollar recovery of what customers feel they lost.

4) Interest isn’t what you think.
Some headlines reference “over 100%” because of post-petition interest or adjustments on allowed claims. But interest can be capped, calculated at conservative rates, or limited to certain creditor classes depending on solvency determinations and jurisdictional rules. It rarely mirrors the opportunity cost of holding crypto during a bull cycle.

5) FX and location effects.
International creditors can face currency conversion differences between their original holdings, the petition-date USD claim, and the final payout currency. Fluctuations across these steps can compress real recovery further once funds land in a creditor’s home currency.

6) Taxes and personal baselines.
Net recovery is what matters. Depending on a creditor’s tax situation, a cash distribution may be taxable in ways that further reduce the after-tax value. Meanwhile, many creditors mentally benchmark against the quantity of tokens they once held, not the petition-date dollar claim. When measured against that personal baseline, the payout can feel like a small slice—even if the legal claim is satisfied at “143%.”

So how does 9–46% happen?
Put simply: if your petition-date claim was fixed when crypto prices were low, and you’re now being paid cash based on that historical value, your payout may amount to a small fraction of what those same coins are worth today. Depending on the token you held, the depth of the post-petition rally, and your tax and currency situation, the effective recovery can compress into the single- to mid-double-digit percentages—hence ranges like 9–46%.

Bottom line
The 143% figure reflects success inside the bankruptcy frame—paying more than allowed claims in cash is rare. But for many individual creditors who measure loss against today’s crypto valuations—or against the number of tokens they once owned—the real-world recovery can feel far smaller. Understanding the petition-date valuation, cash-only distributions, and the post-petition market rebound is key to reconciling the headline with lived reality.